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I posted a BLOG on Friday's
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an update on that situation.
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Where To Find 9% GDP Growth |
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What happened to 1.3 billion people?
Did they just disappear off the face of the earth? Hardly. The entire world
financial community is totally focused on outcome of a bunch of bickering
Congressional Members. It seems as if we have completely forgotten about
globalization and all its ramifications.
Let's face reallity. Here's what's
likely to happen. The world financial community will hold its collective
breath while the Congress debates this weekend. In my view, it's likely
we'll have a framework to move forward tomorrow, and there will be a relief
rally in the market.
However, here's the problem. Once
we "reliquify" the banking system, we will still be in a recession for
the immediate future, and reality will set back in. Economists and strategists
will be watching economic data like hawks for signs of a rebound. The market
will begin pricing in improving conditions six months before the trailing
numbers prove them right.
Markets have collapsed world wide
over the last month, but that money has not disappeared. It still exists,
and at some point in time it will be looking for superior returns.
So here's the picture. The US
is clearly headed for negative GDP growth. As investors,
we have been focused on finding growth stories to make the real returns
in our portfolio. So, as there is clearly going to be limited growth going
forward in the US, we should be looking at opportunities where economies
are delivering results like this:
-
Annual GDP Growth has averaged 9.9%
since 1978.
-
Inflation has come down in the last
year from 6.6% to 4.4%
-
GDP in 2007 was $6.9 Trillion- the
2nd highest in the world
-
The quarterly growth rate in Q2 '08
of 10.1% is expected to slow to 9% for the remainder of 2008
One would think, looking at this moderate
slow down, that the market in this particular country would still be in
reasonably good shape. These are not the stats of a Bear Market. If fact,
the very moderate slowdown of 1% from the torrid pace of 10% GDP growth
down to 9% is associated with a 2 percentage point drop in the inflation
rate. Seems like a fair trade off.
In my view, when global money stops
freaking out about the state of the US economy, and goes looking for superior
returns, it will land squarely in this county's stock market where the
excesses of the US economy are not being felt to a signficant extent.
So- here's the real kicker. I've
given you some statistics demonstrating there is a moderate slow down at
best in a major growth economy. Would you believe that the world investment
community has decimated this country's stock market by 60%?
Yes, that's right. The large cap stocks have been absolutely murdered in
knee jerk fashion by an irrational investment community.
Of course, the country to which I
am referring is China. One would have thought the world financial
community would focus in on China after those spectacular Summer
Olympic games. That has not been the case as the US financial markets have
distracted the world.
FXI is a US ETF (exchange
traded fund). It trades on the AMEX, and represents the behemoths of
the Chinese economy- like the GEs, IBMs, Microsofts, and WalMarts, these
are the largest companies in China. China Mobile, Bank Of China, PetroChina,
and China Life Insurance are a few of the holdings.
So- let's look at the value. I looked
at a list of this ETF's largest holdings. They are all large and profitable
companies. I found annual growth rates ranging from 10% up to 40%.
The entire portfolio of huge, profitable
companies, is trading at a PE Ratio of about 14 with a cash dividend
coupon of 3%.
As the financial world turns to some
level of sanity, my mission is to find you opportunities to make returns
ahead of the big money flows. Today, the financial world is frozen like
a deer in the headlights. Tomorrow, it will be looking for growth.
FXI is a stock you should
own today, and I'm not talking about your high risk, microcap money. I'm
talking about your serious growth money. Capital is going to flow to growth
again soon. It won't find it in US markets.
The global world opens opportunity.
Use it to your advantage.
Own FXI in the $36 to $38 range.
This security is down an absurd 60% from its all time high,
and has completed a powerful multi year pullback. It's a great value at
these levels.
SSL- below $30. Target- Back
to $70 over the next year or two.
I also strongly recommend investing
in China Energy Recovery (OTC BB: CGYV) for the speculative end
of your portfolio ($2 SSL).
These are the only two stocks I would
put new money in right now. US stocks will take some time to get rolling
again. This is where the money will flow. Be ahead of it for once.
Home Page : www.otcjournal.com
Email Questions or Comments To:
[email protected]
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